Fresh concerns have emerged over Nigeria’s ability to fund its ₦54.99 trillion 2025 budget as the country failed once again to meet its oil production target. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that Nigeria produced 1.547 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June 2025, excluding condensates. This figure represents a small rise of 1.24% from May’s output of 1.528 million bpd, based on data from secondary sources.
However, OPEC’s figures from direct communication put Nigeria’s June output at 1.505 million bpd, up slightly from 1.453 million bpd in May. Both figures remain well below the government’s 2025 budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd.
Meanwhile, the price of Bonny Light crude hovered around $69 per barrel, falling $6 short of the budget’s $75 per barrel assumption. These shortfalls pose significant risks to Nigeria’s projected revenues, especially with the naira pegged at ₦1,500 to the dollar in the budget framework.
Experts have expressed doubts over the assumptions used to prepare the 2025 budget. Professor Wumi Iledare, a petroleum economist and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, said the budget projections were unrealistic from the outset. He noted that oil prices, output volumes, and cost factors are too volatile to base a national budget on, and he stressed the need to overhaul the budget planning process.
Mazi Colman Obasi, President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN), echoed similar concerns. He warned that the country is investing in projects that do not contribute meaningfully to long-term growth. According to him, Nigeria should prioritise the effective use of its oil and gas revenues to diversify the economy and reduce over-dependence on the petroleum sector.
